NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year Monday after completing four years of gains. The S&P 500 has advanced about 119% from its Oct. 12, 2022 bear-market closing low, based on Truist analysis. The benchmark finished that 2022 session at 3,577.03, its lowest close since November 2020. It closed Friday at 7,811.54, up 14.1% for 2026 and near record levels. The index also gained 1.2% for the week.
The current advance ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical series. It became the seventh to complete at least four years. The 119% gain remains below the 184% average advance across the bull markets included in the study. Earlier cycles produced much larger cumulative increases. The 2009-to-2020 bull market gained 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 cycle rose 582%. Those two periods remain among the strongest advances in the historical comparison.
Historical returns have remained positive for many bull markets that reached this stage. Six of the previous 10 bull markets lasted longer than four years. Among markets reaching a fifth year, the average fifth-year return was 12% and the median gain was 15%. The study also recorded an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during fifth years. Those figures describe past market behavior rather than a guaranteed path for the current cycle.
Earnings growth supports current market strength
Corporate earnings have strengthened during the latest phase of the rally. FactSet said S&P 500 third-quarter earnings were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year on Oct. 9. That pace would mark a third straight quarter with year-over-year earnings growth above 25%. The growth rate stood at 29.2% when the quarter ended Sept. 30. Of 19 index companies reporting by Oct. 9, 84% exceeded analysts’ average earnings estimates. Aggregate earnings from those companies exceeded estimates by 4.9%.
Expectations also remain elevated for the rest of the year. Analysts expect fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise 27.6% from a year earlier. Full-year 2026 earnings growth is projected at 32.4%. Semiconductor and hardware companies account for about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. They also account for about 75% of year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, according to Barclays research. The data show technology-linked businesses remain central to earnings revisions.
Higher rates remain part of the market backdrop
The equity advance is continuing alongside higher U.S. interest rates and elevated government bond yields. The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16. The central bank said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and inflation remained elevated. September projections put median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed’s next scheduled policy meeting runs from Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.
Long-term Treasury yields also remain near multi-year highs as the bull market starts its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on Oct. 9, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. The S&P 500 still finished that session 0.6% higher, ending at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. Stocks enter the fifth year near records, alongside strong earnings growth and borrowing costs above earlier bull-market levels.